COVID-19: peak forecast for Russian regions and EAEU member states

_ Yerevan-Munich, 27 April 2020  – As part of its research contribution, the analytical media “Eurasian Studies” conducts a weekly forecast of the spread of COVID-19 in the countries and regions of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU). The forecast is modelled by Agashi Tavadyan, PhD (Economics), economist with the Russian-Armenian University.

The model can predict when the peaks for the pandemic are expected, and can help policy makers decide when it is safe to relax quarantine measures.

According to the model, the following COVID-19 peaks are predicted:

Russia

  • Moscow – mid-May
  • Moscow region – early May
  • Central Federal District (without Moscow and M. region) – mid-May
  • Northwestern Federal District (i.e. Saint-Petersburg and regions) – end of May (many mini-peaks)
  • Povolzhsky Federal District – beginning of June (protective measures need to be increased!)
  • Siberian Federal District – mid-May

Other EAEU member states

  • Armenia – end of April-beginning of May (this is the second wave, the first wave was in mid-April)
  • Belarus – end of April-beginning of May (interestingly, this was achieved without special quarantine measures)
  • Kazakhstan – end of April-beginning of May
  • Kyrgyzstan – the peak has already been passed in the first half of April (but it is worth preserving protective measures until the end of May to avoid a second wave of infections)

It should be emphasized that it would be safe to completely allow economic activity only if there are no new domestic cases in the country or region. Otherwise, there will be the probability of a second wave, which may be more dangerous than the first. This may lead to additional restrictions on financial liquidity. In order to counteract this, additional fiscal and monetary measures are needed for each region and each EAEU member state.

The full detailed outlook with tables for each region and EAEU member state together with a detailed description of the methodology can be read here (*in Russian).

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