20 June 2017 at the CIS Institute in Moscow a round table was held, titled “The Political and Socio-Economic Impact of the Association Agreement of Ukraine with the European Union.” The event was organized with the support the Center for Eurasian Studies (CES). Jurij Kofner, director, CES, research assistant, IIASA (Vienna, Austria) via video-bridge gave a report, titled “Ukraine between the EU and the EAEU. Quo vadis Kiev?”.
During the scientific round table the researchers discussed such issues as: the specificity of the socio-economic situation in Ukraine in the context of the ratification of the Association Agreement with the EU; the current state of the market of energy resources and the prospects for the inclusion of the Ukrainian economy in new energy trade; the prospects for further development of political and socio-economic relations between Ukraine and the EU; the degree of influence of the EU on the internal policy of Ukraine as a result of the ratification of the Association Agreement.
Jurij Kofner in his report described the missed opportunities for Ukraine of cooperation with the EAEU, that could have brought a significant growth of high-tech industry and an increase in the Ukranian GDP. Furthermore, based on the findings of leading German (Ifo-Institute) and Austrian (IIASA, wiiw) research institutes, he named all the negative egative conditions andimpacts from the EU-Ukraine DCFTA, i.e. reducing the level of trade in connection with non-compliance to European standards, de-industrialization of the country and a significant outflow of the Ukranian labor force to richer EU countries.
According to the opnion of an overwhelming number of economists from Germany, Austria and Russia, the next most profitable option for Ukraine at this point would be the renewal of cooperation with CIS FTA within a “Lisbon to Vladivostok” common economic space, since after the signing of the EU AA the best option (i.e. becoming an EAEU Member-State) unfortunately became impossible.